Week 9
University of Central Florida Knights @
University of Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
M.M. Roberts Stadium (aka “The Rock”) – Hattiesburg, MS
Capacity: 33,000
Kickoff: 8:00pm ET – SUNDAY GAME!!!
Line (As Of 10/24) : USM -2.5
Television: ESPN & ESPN HD – BrightHouse channels 29 and 1329
Radio: AM 740 (Orlando), 1350 (Cocoa & Dade City), 1340 (Daytona)
1240 (Melbourne)
UCF Record: 4-3 (2-1 IC), last win against Tulsa, last loss to USF.
Opponents Record: 4-3 (3-1 IC), last win against Marshall, last
loss to Rice.
Series Record: USM leads the series 2-0.
UCF Depth Chart: Click Here To See
USM Depth Chart: When I find one I’ll post it

Analysis by: punk0mi of the ucflj community.

What a rollercoaster, baby…
By far, UCF played its finest game this season last weekend. Everything
and everyone was clicking. Israel was hot. Smith was hot. Joachim was
hot. The defense was hot. Seriously, who wasn’t hot? The only answer I
can come up with is the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. UCF deserves major kudos
for winning that game because the team effectively shutdown the nation’s
second deadliest offensive attack with confidence….

It is my opinion that if UCF keeps up that style of play, expect the
Knights to finish the season at a 9-3, go to a bowl game and win it, and
maybe, possibly, even be ranked in the lower part of the Top 25. Once
again, that is just opinion and assuming that UCF maintains that level
of play. Either way, only time will tell us how good the Knights are as
the season begins to round out. For now, UCF must remain focused and
play one game at a time. This weekend the Knights go on the road to take
on one of the most solid mid-major college football programs there is -
the University of Southern Mississippi.

Please remember – this game is on SUNDAY night and will be competing
against game 4 of the World Series as far as TV goes.

He is looking better and better each week: KevinSmithForHeisman.com

One last thing folks – please stay after the football game and sing the
Alma Mater with the band. I know it sounds silly, but that is one of the
most traditional things to do in College Football. If you do not know
the words go to UCFathletics.com and find them.

On to the pre-game analysis…

What can we expect from Southern Miss?
In all honesty, Southern Miss has been a little hard to read this
season. USM enters the show at 5-3, which isn’t too bad, until you look
who the wins and losses came from. USM has chalked up wins against teams
like 1-AA Tennessee-Martin, SMU, ECU, and barely escaped a loss from
Marshall last Sunday. Out of all those wins, the only impressive victory
came at ECU. As far as losses go, USM dropped losses at SEC powerhouse
(or so they say, sorry for the jab) Tennessee, last year’s surprise team
at Boise State, and yes an ugly loss to Rice at home. Are the Golden
Eagles a good team? Yes. But I don’t think they are as “Golden” as they
would like to be this season or like they have been in the past.

What can we expect from UCF?
Thumping a very good Tulsa team was just what the doctor ordered. UCF
needed a morale booster and they got it. Hopefully that same energy will
carry on next Sunday as the Knights take on a team they have never
beaten. Expect Kyle Israel to come out and lead the team like he did
against Tulsa. Expect the defense to feel real good and confidant about
beating the 2 nd best offense in the nation. Expect UCF to be driven and
to know that their chances at a championship and a bowl game are very
much alive. UCF wants to win.

Who, What, Where, Why, When, How?
Injuries have plagued this team from day one. First the Golden Eagles
lost WR Ralph Turner (So.) to a foot injury. Then it was starting QB
Jeremy Young (Sr.) with a high ankle sprain. Then it was backup QB
Martavious Young (RS/Fr.) with a broken leg only 3 plays into his start.
Now it is their best WR and punt returner, Chris Johnson (Sr.), out with
a broken arm. Ouch. Needless to say Southern Miss is having to reach
deep into its depth chart to replace some major talent on the offense.
The Golden Eagles are now on their third QB, Stephen Reaves (RS/Sr.).
Reaves didn’t look too promising in the rest of the game against Rice -
primarily because he was playing injured with an abdominal strain.
However, the next week Reaves looked vastly improved with a confidant
win over SMU, and then last week just doing enough to survive a visit to
Marshall. The real offensive weapon for USM is sophomore RB Damion
Fletcher. Fletcher is averaging 113 yards per game (5.3 YPC) with nine
total touchdowns. Fletcher is fast, reads coverage very well, and can
make the best defensive fronts work to bringing him down. As previously
mentioned, this past Sunday the Golden Eagles suffered another blow on
offense when their best and most experienced WR/punt returner, Chris
Johnson (Sr.), suffered a broken arm. As it stands right now USM head
coach Jeff Bower doesn’t know who is going to fill the void and went on
record saying:

”We weren’t deep there [in the WR position] to begin with…I don’t
know. We may have to play a guy who we planned on redshirting.”

With that said look for WR’s Torris Magee (Fr.), Gerald Baptiste (Jr.),
as well as TE Shawn Nelson (Jr.) to step it up a notch. Also, look for
the occasional flats pass to RB Damion Fletcher. The USM O-line is stout
but not perfect as they have let in 14 sacks for a loss of 111 yards on
the season. Despite all the injuries, the Golden Eagles are doing enough
to just get by. So what does UCF need to do on defense? First and
foremost the defense must not be deceived into thinking that Southern
Miss is not that good due to injuries. This team is still very dangerous
in running as well as passing. Secondly, the defense must stop Damion
Fletcher from running all over the place. Also, the defensive secondary
needs to keep an eye out for the passing game because USM will strike
through the air if the opportunity presents itself. UCF should blitz and
rush hard this game. If the blitz and rush is effective, expect USM to
be limited in forward movement and expect the streak of takeaways to
continue for UCF.

Defensively, the Golden Eagles are OK. Currently, USM leads the C-USA in
scoring defense and ranks second in the conference in total and passing
defense. Just to emphasize the point further – USM’s defensive backfield
had 4 picks against Marshall last Sunday. Yes, USM is good at stopping
the passing attack – but they do struggle in stopping a running attack.
This season the Eagles defensive front is allowing and average of 143
rushing yards per game and has allowed 10 TD’s by foot. The only good
rushing attacks that USM has faced this season has been Boise St. and
Tennessee, and each of those teams ran for just under 200 yards and a
total of 5 TD’s. The leader on the Eagle defense is Senior LB Gerald
McRath. This season alone McRath has 32 solos and 50 assists. Also look
for DL Martavius Prince (RS/Sr.) to make his presence felt on the
oppositions QB as he leads USM in sacks at 6.5 for a loss of 51 yards,
one FF, and 2 fumble recoveries. As far as defensive backs go look for
plays to come from Brandon Sumrall (Sr.), Eddie Hicks (So.), LeVance
Richmond (Sr.), and C.J. Bailey (Fr.). What does UCF need to do on
offense? Let Kevin Smith run the ball. USM will have a difficult time
trying to stop him, so until they figure it out, let Smith pound it.
Kyle Israel needs to be as confidant as he was last week against Tulsa
if not more so. There is one thing Southern Miss has made quite clear
this season and that is they are able to kill a passing game if they
want to. Israel will have to check his receivers before he commits to
the throw because if he doesn’t expect a pick or a dead passing game. I
believe the UCF O-line will dominate the USM defensive front. If that is
the case, then Kevin Smith will have an excellent day running the ball
and Israel will have the time to make smart passes. Expect to see more
from WR Sergio Joachim after his spectacular day against Tulsa. Other
wide receiver to look for will be Rocky Ross, Mike Merritt, and Kamar
Aiken. As usual, UCF will need to come out strong and finish stronger.
The offense needs to establish and maintain the pace of the game and
demonstrate dominance and the same conviction they had last week.

Other Contributing Factors: There are many contributing factors that will affect UCF. Away Game – Despite only seating 33,000 fans, the “Rock” can get very loud and distracting. USM fans are loud and proud. UCF fans will be hard to distinguish as USM and UCF share the same colors of Black and Gold. Injuries anyone? – The truth is that Southern Miss is pretty banged up. UCF needs to play hard against the large number of USM red shirts and younger players. Their inexperience could be very profitable for UCF. Conference USA Game – For UCF, this game matters big time. To make a play for the East division title, UCF needs to win out the remaining conference schedule and hopes someone can beat out ECU. Weather looks cool for a game: – Forecast calls for a daytime high of 72 with a 10% chance of showers, and a overnight low of 47 with a 10% chance of showers. Winds are expected to be out of the N at 3-5 MPH with a humidity of 82%. Sunset is at 6:13 PM CT.

Summary:
I think UCF may have found what it needed in last weeks thrashing of
Tulsa. I expect UCF go to Mississippi and play just like they did at
home last Saturday. Southern Miss is banged up right now, even more so
after the loss of their best wide receiver and punt returner. The only
real major threat is going to be Damion Fletcher running. If the UCF D
can clamp down on Fletcher and keep their heads on a swivel to break up
the pass plays, then UCF should come out victorious. The UCF offensive
line should dominate and make big holes for Kevin Smith to make some big
gains on the ground. Also, if Israel has another game like he did
against Tulsa, then this game will be won by UCF for sure. Despite being
a 2.5 point underdog, I think UCF will get its first win over USM this
week. Either way, the game should be quite fun to watch – so get some
popcorn and your friends, and gather around the tele on Sunday night.

Last but not least, I leave you with the Keys to the Game and Players to
Watch.

Go Knights!