Once again here Sami’s (aka punk0mi) weekly game analysis which he gives on UCF’s Live Journal community. He wrote an extra long analysis for USF week!

Week 7
University of Central Florida Knights @
University of South Florida Bulls
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Capacity: 65,000 (Typical College Game Lower Bowl Only 45,323)
Kickoff: 12:00pm ET
Line (As Of 10/9) : USF -12
Television: ESPNU – BrightHouse channel 109 (if you pay for the
Digital Sports Package)
Radio: AM 740 (Orlando), 1350 (Cocoa & Dade City), 1340 (Daytona)
1240 (Melbourne)
UCF Record: 3-2,last win against Louisiana-Lafayette, Last loss
to ECU.
Opponents Record: 5-0, Last win against FAU.
Series Record: USF leads the series 2-0.
UCF Depth Chart: Click Here To See
USF Depth Chart: Click Here To See

Analysis by: punk0mi of the ucflj community.

Welcome to the super size edition…

This analysis is going to a lot longer than usual because I am going to
go in-depth about a lot of things. So, get your granny glasses and let’s
get started….

Welcome to “short-lived” rivalry week at UCF

So did anyone think this game would ever be bigger than the Texas game?
I knew it would be a game to see, but not a possible ranking wrecker! It
seems the god’s have favored our “short-lived” rivals in Tampa as they
are now 5-0 and ranked a high and mighty 5th in the nation (at least in
the AP polls). I have to tell you that I find it extremely disturbing
that next year will be the last time we play the University of South
Florida. For some reason the Bulls, particularly head coach Jim Leavitt,
has no interests in continuing this rivalry.

Are you kidding me? Could Florida not play Florida State? Could Ohio
State not play Michigan? Could Texas not play Oklahoma? Could Army not
play Navy?

Even if USF is leaps and bounds above UCF in regards to football there
is one thing both schools have in common and both need desperately –
tradition.

Both schools are relatively young in Division 1 football. UCF showed up
in 1996 and USF in 2001 and neither have really established any real
traditions or rivalry. I know that I, as well as other countless UCF and
USF students, see this match-up between the schools as the first steps
in developing some of that mystic college tradition that the other big
timers have.

So the question I have to ask USF is this – why do you want to end it?

Is it because you think we make your schedule weaker? Is it because you
think we may threaten your recruits? Is it because you think UCF will
never amount to anything? Is it because you think you are better than UCF?

I understand that attempting to make rivalry with Miami is bigger than
UCF, but come on this is Miami you are talking about, The U, and Miami
doesn’t need any more rival games. Miami and Florida already battle for
the War Canoe, and Miami versus Florida State is an ACC in-state battle
royale extravaganza fully equipped with an ESPN camera crew for prime
time TV. Not to mention that all three of those schools compete for the
Florida Cup when each team plays each other in a season! For Pete’s
sake, where does USF fit into that picture? Where will USF rank in
Miami’s importance meter for the next 6 years?

Who knows?

I do know this though – UCF will go on with out you.

SIDE NOTE – If you are traveling to the game I suggest you wear
black…I know it will be miserable because it will be noon time, but the
TV audience won’t know the difference between UCF fans and USF fans.
That is just my opinion and observation.

Despite the loss last week he is still #1 in stats, so check out: KevinSmithForHeisman.com

On to the pre-game analysis…

What can we expect from USF?
Hard hitting speed on defense and an offense that does enough to get by.
USF is a really good team this season. No doubts about it. Offensively
the Bulls are producing but nothing great. USF is sitting at 5-0 after
beating both ranked Auburn on the road and West Virginia at home.
However, USF let their guard down somewhat against Florida Atlantic and
almost let victory slip away. USF is 5th in the nation and have big
dreams so expect them to play hard.

What can we expect from UCF?
Expect their heads to be in this game. Last week was a disappointment
bonanza and the Knights know that. If they didn’t, I am positive O’Leary
let them know with more than one colorful expletive. UCF is a good team
this year, so don’t be bummed yet. UCF has been afforded another chance
to dethrone a ranked team, who is considered to be our rival. If the
Knights can succeed in doing that, then who knows what will happen.

USF Offense v. UCF Defense
USF is lead offensively by Junior QB Matt Grothe. Grothe is a good
leader, what he lacks in his passing game he makes up for in his ability
to scramble. Last week against FAU, Grothe ran for 120 yards and a TD.
USF offensive coordinator Greg Gregory was quoted after the FAU game saying:

“We’re not throwing the ball real well right now…teams are dropping
back a lot of people on us. We’re running out of necessity.”

USF has good backs but nothing super spectacular. Look for the ball to
go to Benjamin Williams (Jr.) or Mike Ford (Fr.). Williams has 310 yards
on the season (Avg. 5.4 YPC) and has 5 touchdowns on the season. Ford
has 212 yards on the season (Avg. 5.6 YPC) and has 4 touchdowns as well.
As of last week, only 5 of the 19 total TD’s came from receivers. USF WR
Amarri Jackson (Sr.) is leads the way in receiving yards at 203 and 2
TD. He is helped out by fellow receivers Taurus Johnson (Jr.), Jessie
Hester (Jr.), and sophomore Carlton Mitchell.

Again, based on watching games and looking at the stats – USF does just
enough on offense to get by.

UCF is capable of challenging the USF offense. Look for Seniors DE Leger
Douzable, DT Keith Shologan, and sophomore DT Torrell Johnson to lead
the way for the UCF defensive line. It is still unknown who the other
starting DE will be, but it will be between two very capable individuals
named Bruce Miller (Fr.) and Antonio Wallace (Jr.). UCF has an OK set of
linebackers that should be able to help put the pressure on the USF
throwing game but also need to stand ready to stop the numerous QB
scrambles that will happen. UCF corners and safeties have the speed and
the talent to stop the pass plays, but will need to be on full alert for
quick strikes to the flats or the occasional deep ball. Expect either RC
Joe Burnett to have his work cut out for him. The entire D needs to be
alert for turnover opportunities because there will be a few.

What can UCF do against the USF Offense? Two weak spots need to be MUST
be exploited:

Weak spot #1 – Having a QB running out of necessity means
the offensive line isn’t doing its job good enough or are weak. Put
pressure on Grothe and make him collapse under it. If Grothe is shut
down or hurried, or injured, this offense will produce very little or
lead to weak spot #2.

Weak spot #2 – Turnovers are a problem for USF. In the
past two games USF has committed eight turnovers – five fumbles, three
interceptions. UCF HAS TO CASH IN ON TURNOVERS AND TAKE POINTS WHERE
THEY CAN.

Last but not least, the UCF defense must be physical, make tackles, and
play smart.

USF Defense v. UCF Offense
USF has a defense chock full of speed, aggression, and talent. The Bulls
defense is lead by George Selvie – a 6’-4” 255 lbs Junior defensive end.
Selvie already has 10.5 sacks for a loss of 55 yards this season – very
impressive numbers! Also look for hard hits and possible penetration
from Senior DE Jarriett Buie and Sophomore DT Aaron Harris. USF boasts
excellent players in the linebacker positions – Ben Moffitt (Sr.),
Brouce Mompremier (Jr.), and Tyrone McKenzie (Sr.) all have had a
significant impact of this highly defensive team. Expect these three to
make huge plays and to take a pick or two at some point. The USF
backfield is loaded with talent as well. Look out for CB’s Trae Williams
(Sr.), Mike Jenkins (Jr.), and SS Nate Allen (So.) as they have been
known to make picks out of passes with ease. Thus far this season the
entire USF defense has had 11 picks with 6 players.

The bottom line is that USF is fast and physical on defense.

UCF’s offense has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride in respects to who
should be QB. At the start of the season, Kyle Israel looked like the
leader, but his play has been anything but stable in the games after
N.C. State, especially after a poor second half performance that gave
ECU a win last Saturday. Greco shined in the second half against
Memphis, but looked like a dimly lit bulb against UL-L and ECU. So, who
is going to start? Probably Israel but at this point, I wouldn’t be
surprised to see Greco start either. Kevin Smith is the nation’s leading
rusher with an average of 172 yards per game. Smith also has 11
touchdowns this season. Smith has been at the center of this UCF offense
and has proven to be an valuable member of the team. The entire UCF
offensive line has been spectacular this season. The O-line has only
allowed 5 sacks this season and has made more than enough holes for
Kevin Smith to run through. The wide receiver position has two rising
stars named Kamar Aikem (Fr. 337 Yards, 3 TD’s) and A.J. Guyton (Fr. 147
Yards, 1 TD). Along side with Junior receiver Rocky Ross, the trio has
747 yards between them and 4 touchdowns. The receiver set has proven the
can make big plays when under the gun.

So is there anything UCF can do against this defensive beast?

The first and most obvious thing that needs to happen is UCF keeping
possession of the ball. Just like ECU, turnovers against USF will cost
the game. So, Kyle Israel and Michael Greco – either take the sack or
better yet throw it away! Also, if you scramble, tuck the ball and slide
when possible! Kevin Smith will have his work cut out for him. Expect
every single defensive player to have a target on his Smith’s head.
Expect every single defensive player to try and take him out (and yes I
mean injure him – as it is the only sure way to stop him – and no I am
not saying they will be out to hurt him, but don’t expect them to not
know his shoulder isn’t vulnerable). With that said, hopefully O’Leary
will swap out between Kevin Smith and Philip Smith to reduce the
possibilities of injury. Israel needs to spread the ball more. It is
obvious that Israel has favorites to throw too, which is fine, but it
should be expected that his favorite receivers will be covered up quick.
Essentially, against a defense of this caliber, take all the yards and
points you can get.

Also, I certainly hope we haven’t seen the entire UCF playbook yet. If
so, then we are the most boring team on the face of the earth. Every
team needs a trick play or two, or a formation that the opponent has
never seen. Hopefully, O’Leary has something in that book neither we nor
our opponents have seen yet. I am going to interject my opinion here and
give some trick plays and other formations to try out.

1.) The Wildcat formation – Seriously, we have the talent to run
this formation efficiently. Especially with Kevin Smith and both Isreal
and Greco’s abilities. It may not work the entire game, but it may
provide some opportunities to make big plays and to confuse the defense.
If you don’t know what the Wildcat is, check out this video…Click Here.

2.) How about a trick field goal formation…kind of what LSU did this
season. No one would expect that from UCF, because we have never shown
that option before. If you don’t know what I am talking about, check out
this video…Click
here.

3.) The halfback pass – In all honesty, I don’t know if this would
work for UCF or not, simply because I am not sure about Kevin Smith’s
arm strength, plus not to mention the speed of USF’s line may not allow
this play to develop, but it is something to see that play happen. If
you have never seen a halfback pass, check out this video…Click Here.

Seriously, the options are endless. I just hope we haven’t seen all that
is in that playbook.

Other than turnovers, the second half slumps are what everyone should
worry about. To date, I have yet to see why, or hear why, UCF slumps so
badly in the second. Perhaps it just has to do with the team mentality
and opinion of the opponent. UCF stuck it to then ranked #6 Texas for
the entire game, so that gives me hope that UCF will stick it to now
ranked #5 USF the entire game as well. If UCF cannot perform for the
second half, no matter what the score is, they will lose this game.

Other Contributing Factors: There are many contributing factors that will affect UCF. Hostile Environment – Typically USF only has the lower bowl of the RayJay for home games which limits the maximum attendance. However, this game is a sellout. And that means 66,000 people will be there. I seriously think there will be more USF fans than UCF fans, simply due to the bandwagon effect, but who knows. I am sure it will be louder than any game this season. If you are a Knight attending that game…lose your voice that day. Intimidation – Is UCF intimidated by USF’s ranking? Is UCF intimidated by the hype USF is receiving. Second Chances are hard to come by… – UCF has another opportunity to dethrone a Top 10 team. Will UCF overcome their issues and register their first win against a ranked opponent? Does UCF want some attention? Then they need to prove it on the field. Weather looks great for a game: – Clear skies are the call. The forecast expects daytime hight of 85 with a 10% of showers. Winds are expected to be from the NNE at 8-9 MPH. Wear sunscreen people – the UV index is expected to be a crispy 8

Summary:
Honestly, as a UCF fan, I am insulted by the spread a little bit. Vegas
is saying it will be a 12 point match in favor of South Florida. I think
it will be less, but I could be wrong. In all fairness to Vegas, they
are taking the safe bet and picking the clear cut winner in their minds.
Take my word for it – this game will be tougher than Texas. Rest assured
that this game is bigger than Texas was. I hate to say it because they
are our “short-term” rivals, but USF is a good team right now. If UCF
wants to win they have to bring their best game and give it 150% for all
4 quarters. I believe UCF is capable of stopping USF from scoring, but
can UCF play good enough to score on the aggressive defense? We will
have to wait and see.

Last but not least, I leave you with the Keys to the Game and Players to
Watch.

Keys to a Win: UCF PLAYS FOR 4 QUARTERS! NO TURNOVERS!! Take advantage of all USF turnovers Take points where you can get them	Keys to a Loss: UCF offense is shut down by USF UCF doesn’t play all 4 quarters Turnovers UCF doesn’t play smart (I know this is vague, but true)
Key Players for UCF: TB – #24 – Kevin Smith – 6’1”, 211 lbs WR – #81 – Kamar Aiken – 6’2”, 205 lbs QB – #7 – Kyle Israel – 6’2”, 223 lbs QB – #2 – Michael Greco – 6’3”, 220 lbs	Key Players for ECU: QB – #8 – Matt Grothe – 6’0” 213 lbs DE – #95 – George Selvie – 6’4”, 242 lbs WR – #18 – Amarri Jackson – 6’5”, 202 lbs TB – #30 Benjamin Williams – 5’7”, 200 lbs

Go Knights! And Good Luck!