Week 8
University of Tulsa Golden Hurricanes @
University of Central Florida Knights
Bright House Networks Stadium – Orlando, FL
Capacity: 45,301
Kickoff: 4:00pm ET
Line (As Of 10/16) : UCF -3
Television: Not Televised
Radio: AM 740 (Orlando), 1350 (Cocoa & Dade City), 1340 (Daytona) 1240 (Melbourne)
UCF Record: 3-3 (1-1), last win against Memphis. Last loss against USF.
Opponents Record: 4-2 (2-1), last win against Marshall. Last loss against UTEP
Series Record: Tulsa leads the series 1-0.
UCF Depth Chart:Click Here To See
Tulsa Depth Chart:Click Here To See

Analysis by: punk0mi of the ucflj community.

Needless to say…
There is still some blood on our noses from the thrashing USF gave us…and I find it very difficult to find anything positive to take away from last weeks game. However, the season isn’t over, and there is still some hope at getting to the C-USA championship game or a bowl game. Either way, we took the lashing, and now it is time to wipe our faces and move on.

We are half way through what I am now calling “Bloody October” and still have to face a good Tulsa team and consistent Southern Miss on the road. Make no bones about it – UCF needs to win both of these games. If UCF can win these two games, then the rest of the season should be a breeze with the exception of perhaps UTEP.

By the way, this is family weekend at UCF. Obviously, expect a lot of children and parents to be around the campus and at the game.

On to the pre-game analysis…

What can we expect from Tulsa?
A good, pass-happy offense! This is a team that has put up 1,921 yards of total offense in their past three games! Seriously, Tulsa netted 695 total yards offense against UAB, put up 648 yards of total offense to UTEP (and somehow still lost 48-47), and last week against Marshall slapped another 578 yards of total offense and only won by a TD. However, defense for Tulsa is another story as the Golden Hurricane allowed 444 yards against a terrible Marshall team.

What can we expect from UCF?
To be honest – it is hard to say at this point. We have playmakers, but it is becoming obvious that the team has no clear cut leader on the sidelines or on the field, and to me that is a major problem. I still believe in our defense. I know most people see our defense as making a lot of mistakes, and yes they have to some extent. However, I still maintain our defense collapses because the offense isn’t doing their job and letting the defense rest up. No defense can play for that long without tiring out – conditioned or not. I expect to see some life in UCF this week, and a lot more motivation. It will energize the team to be in front of the home crowd again (but I have my concerns about fair weather fans and how many people will actually show up).

Who, What, Where, Why, When, How?
The Tulsa game is all about Senior Quarterback Paul Smith. He has had 6 straight 300 yard passing games this season and 4 games where he has thrown at least 3 touchdowns. Did I mention that he is 4th in the nation in passing yards per game (368.1) and has a completion rate of 61.8%. Smith, is also a master of the no-huddle hurry-up offense. Expect to see quite a few passes to WR Brennan Marion (Jr.). Marion only has 13 receptions to his record this season, but get this stat – 12 of the receptions have gone for 25 yards or more – 8 of which have gone for more than 40 yards, and 2 of which for more than 70 yards! Other WR’s too look for include Trae Johnson (Fr.), Jesse Meyer (So.), and to freshman Fullback Charles Clay as he is a better receiver than a rusher. If Tulsa wants to play the run game expect to see RB Tarrion Adams (Jr.) get most of the carries. Thus far this season Adams is averaging 6.0 YPC and has 4 TD’s to his name. So what does the UCF defense need to do? Since Tulsa is a heavy passing team, this battle will be fought in the back field. UCF corners and safeties will need to be at their best because this game is all about their abilities. Jason Venson, Sha’reef Rashad, Johnell Neal, and Joe Burnett need to be hero’s this weekend by making plays, breaking up passes, and make a pick when possible. Blown assignments in the deep will mean big gains, if not scores for Tulsa. If UCF can penetrate the line and hurry the QB chances are Paul Smith will throw some sloppy balls that can be picked.

Defensively, Tulsa is struggling. The Hurricane defense this season is allowing an average of 490.3 yards of offense! If a terrible 0-6 Marshall team can put up a total of 444 yards on Tulsa, there is no telling what UCF will do. Look for big plays from Tulsa’s senior Linebacker Nelson Coleman. In the past two seasons, Coleman has lead the team in tackles and is averaging about 9 tackles per game. Also, fellow LB Chris Chamberlain is looking good as he has chalked up 5 straight games with double digit numbers of tackles made. The Tulsa backfield is struggling just as bad by allowing an average of 287 passing yards per game. So what does this mean for UCF offensively? The pass game may not look to bad this weekend. I do not know who is going to start at QB. My gut tells me Michael Greco, but since we have seen Kyle Israel more often than not, I am hard pressed to believe my gut (editors node: Kyle gets the job). Despite who gets the nod for the starting QB position, I expect Kevin Smith to run all over this defense and get back the yards he was missed out on last week. UCF needs to take advantage of this slacking Tulsa backfield. If the air game can be established, expect big gains and touchdowns. As far as the UCF O-line goes, I do not foresee any real challenges, but the linesmen need to keep an eye out for QB rushes and blitz plays from the linebackers. If Smith is successful at running the ball, then expect him to get at least 3 TD’s by himself and a ton of yards. If the passing game is clicking, even at 50%, expect some nice play plays to develop that will set UCF up for scoring opportunities.

Other Contributing Factors There are many contributing factors that will affect Tulsa. Home Field Advantage – The home field advantage is going to be there. Expect the student section to loud. On the Rebound – So, yeah, everyone in the nation saw the score line for last week. UCF needs to comeback and pick it up. The team should be pumped up to win and to make up for last weeks debacle. Conference USA Game – For UCF, this game matters big time. To make a play for the East division title, UCF needs to win out the remaining conference schedule and hope someone can beat out ECU. Weather looks great for a game: – Forecast calls for a daytime high of 86 with a 40% chance of showers, and a overnight low of 71 with a 10% chance of showers. Winds are expected to be out of the NNE at 4-6 MPH with a humidity of 69%. Sunset is at 6:51 PM.

Summary:
There is no doubt that Tulsa is an offensive juggernaut of the C-USA, but defensively they are pipsqueaks. Now, word on the street is that Tulsa is a bit concerned about this game, or at least everywhere I have read. I am pretty sure Tulsa is more concerned about the run game with Kevin Smith more than anything, because frankly, because they know they may not have the tools to stop him on defense. UCF’s defensive backfield needs to put on their game face and get some against this passing Tulsa team. UCF’s offense needs to make plays, limit turnovers, and score often. Most importantly – UCF NEEDS TO STAY MOTIVATED. Expect this game to be a scoring bonanza for both teams. In fact I think it may be safe to say that both teams will have at least 30 points if not more.
 
Last but not least, I leave you with the Keys to the Game and Players to Watch.

Go Knights!