Week 6
Southern Methodist University Mustangs @
University of Central Florida Knights
Bright House Networks Stadium
Capacity: 45,301
Kickoff: 3:30pm ET
Line (As Of 10/2) : UCF -13.5
Television: CBS College Sports (BrightHouse channel 106, DirectTV channel 613, DishNetwork channel 152). Also being streamed on the internet at www.cbssports.com/ppvonline
Radio: AM 740 (Orlando), 1350 (Cocoa & Dade City), 1340 (Daytona) 1240 (Melbourne)
UCF Record: 1-3 (0-1), Last win against S.C. State. Last loss to UTEP.
Opponents Record: 1-4 (0-2), Last win against Texas State. Last loss to Tulane.
Series Record: UCF leads the series 1-0.
UCF Depth Chart:Click Here To See
SMU Depth Chart:When I find one, I’ll post it.

Analysis by: punk0mi of the ucflj community.

Despair…

Losing streaks are never fun – Just ask UTEP…er…maybe not.

Our Knights return to Orlando for a C-USA clash with the Mustangs of Southern Methodist University. Both teams are looking for playmakers to show up, and even more importantly a win. For UCF, the conference title race isn’t over – so that should give us some hope. After five weeks of play this is how the C-USA east is shaping up:

1 – Marshall (3-2) (2-0)
2 – East Carolina (3-2) (1-1)
3 – Southern Miss (2-2) (0-1)
4 – Memphis (2-3) (0-1)
5 – UCF (1-3)(0-1)
6 – UAB (1-4)(0-1)

To make it back to the title game, UCF needs to win out the remaining conference schedule – which while challenging, isn’t impossible.

One last note – Despite the drubbing last weekend at El Paso, I was able to find ONE glimmer of hope for the future of UCF football. He is a diamond in the rough and his name is Rob Calabrese. With a little more work, I seriously believe he could be really deadly. Looking back over the game film the kid has a great release and a powerful arm, he just needs to get his accuracy a little better (or have the receivers not quit on the routes?). Calabrese is quick on his feet and has a good feel for what is happening on field. Like I said – with a little more work he could become a better version of Matt Grothe or Pat White.

On to the pre-game analysis…

What can we expect from SMU?
Expect a signature June Jones run-and-shoot offense. Expect the SMU offense to line up in a multiple look spread style offense. Currently the Mustangs are ranked 20th in the nation for pass offense at an average of 276.6 YPG. However, on the flip side the rushing game isn’t there at all and is only averaging 36 YPG. Defensively speaking SMU ranks in the bottom of all Div 1-A. Look at these stats and you will understand why:

Overall Defense – 119 th – allowing 519.2 YPG.
Pass Defense – 116 th – allowing 296.8 YPG
Scoring Defense – 116 th – allowing 43.4 PPG
Rush Defense – 114 th – allowing 222.4 YPG
Third Down Defense – Have stopped only 35.1% of third down attempts.

What can we expect from UCF?
The offense still has some rather large question marks. The biggest is this: Who will be the starting QB against SMU? Will it be Greco? Or will it be Calabrese? On top of that the Knights are still looking for a player to break out in the RB position. As it stands now, UCF is ranked 111 th in the nation in total offense (283.0 YPG), 114 th in scoring (15.3 PPG), and have only converted 30.8% of their third downs. The ugly number I personally don’t like is that UCF is in last place in the C-USA for red-zone offense (58.3%). UCF is doing OK on defense. Despite allowing so many big plays from UTEP last weekend, expect the defense to regroup and make things hard for SMU.

Who, What, Where, Why, When, How?
The Mustang offense is lead by true freshman Bo Levi Mitchell. Mitchell is 103/184 on the season thus far and has 12 TD and 12 INT’s to match. Look for passes to hit superstars WR Emmanuel Sanders (Jr) and Aldrick Robinson(So.). Sanders has 39 receptions for 561 yards and 5 TD’s. Robinson has 25 receptions for 446 yards and 6 TD. Not to shabby. Other receivers to watch out for are Terrance Wilkerson (Fr.), and Josh Bryant(So.). When SMU attempts to run the ball, which they don’t do too often, RB DeMyron Martin(Sr.) is the go to man. What will UCF need on D? This game was made for the secondary. Neal, Venson, Rashad, and Burnett have their work cut out for them. For this game I expect UCF to release one LB to make a serious pass rush, but otherwise expect the other linebacker to keep an eye on the intermediate lanes to prevent any short passes. The D line should have no problems with SMU O line (for the most part it is first year players). Considering that SMU has already had 15 turnovers (12 INT’s, 3 fumbles)…it could be easy picking for the UCF D.

The Mustang defense is plain ugly and practically non-existent. As I mentioned earlier, a good part of SMU’s defense stats are in the toilet of Div 1-A. This can be attributed to a very inexperienced defensive unit. The defensive line for SMU is Patrick Fleming (So.), Patrick Handy (Sr.), Serge Elizee (Sr.), and Youri Yenga (So.). Yenga is the man to watch. He is a powerful tackle and has 20 solos, 5.5 TFLs for 35 yards, and 1 fumble recovery. Other defensive standouts include Junior LB Pete Fleps, DB Tyler Jones (Jr.), CB Derrius Bell (So.). What does UCF need on the offensive attack? A good solid day of offense against a very vulnerable defense could bolster some confidence and morale. O’Leary has opened the QB slot to competition, but if you want my guess Calabrese will get the start. UCF took a major blow this past weekend and lost Senior WR Rocky Ross to a shattered shoulder. Despite the loss, UCF still has CAPABLE receivers in Kamar Aiken, Brian Watters, Richard Jackson, and Khymest Williams. Between the arm strength of Calabrese, having capable receivers, and going against a terrible pass defense should mean UCF can move the ball fairly easy. Ronnie Weaver is starting to shows signs of life in the running back area as he is averaging 3.2 yards per carry – however don’t expect O’Leary to settle on just one back yet. Special teams must improve and make points when they can, especially with field goals. The offensive line should do rather well against SMU’s defensive line, which is even better news for the QB and the RB as it will take the heat off the pass and hopefully open some holes for the run.

Other Contributing Factors: There are many contributing factors that will affect SMU. Home Sweet Home – Bright House Networks Stadium has always been good to the Knights thus far. UCF is 7-2 at home in the Bright House… Packed House – I read yesterday that UCF only has 1,000 tickets left for this game. So that means there will be a loud crowd this weekend. Road to Recovery – Expect UCF to play hard as they know their backs are against the wall. Weather looks good for a game: – Partly cloudy skies are expected. The forecast calls for a daytime high of 86 with a 30% of showers and an overnight low of 71 with 20% chance of showers. Relative humidity is expected to be around 61%. Winds are expected to be from the NNE at 14 MPH. Sunset is at 7:07PM

Summary:

This is the last shot UCF has at pulling it together. If UCF cannot win at home against one of the worst defenses in America, then I hate to say it, there will be no hope this season. SMU is struggling worse than UCF right now. On top of that, SMU just lost several players to suspension, so the depth will be hurt a little as well. With that said, if UCF can take advantage of SMU’s weaknesses and have an explosive day, and I am talking a 500 yard, at least 40 points, kind of day, then it just may jumpstart this team to where it should be. The UCF backfield needs to stay on their toes they know the ball is going in to the air about 90% of this game. If the smokin’ aces in the backfield can shut down the passes, or even better intercept those passes and convert them into scoring drives UCF will be good. I expect Calabrese to shine at this game for some reason. If he has a good day, then he just may be the starter for the remainder of the season. UCF should prevail victorious on Saturday.

Last but not least, I leave you with the Keys to the Game and Players to Watch.

Go Knights!