Week 12
University of Central Florida Knights @
Southern Methodist University Mustangs
Gerald J. Ford Stadium – Dallas, TX
Capacity: 32,000
Kickoff: 3:00 pm ET
Line (As Of 11/13) : UCF -13
Television: Not Televised
Radio: AM 740 (Orlando), 1350 (Cocoa & Dade City), 1340 (Daytona) 1240 (Melbourne)
UCF Record: 7-3 (5-1 IC), last win against Marshall, last loss to USF.
Opponents Record: 1-9 (0-6 IC), last win against North Texas, last loss to Rice.
Series Record: First meeting of these two teams
UCF Depth Chart: Click Here To See
SMU Depth Chart: When I find one I’ll post it

Analysis by: punk0mi of the ucflj community.

Life on top…sure is sweet

You know it sure feels good to be back on top! UCF got an early gift this year from Marshall when the Herd destroyed ECU 26 to 7. The ECU loss opened the doors up for UCF to move back into the number one seat in the C-USA East Division and inches that much closer to a championship game and a bowl game.

Interestingly, as of right now, UCF is ranked 36 th in the BCS, just in front of Alabama, Fresno State, and Utah. Don’t believe me, then check it out for yourselves: Click here to see complete BCS rankings.

Despite the success, let’s not get too giddy yet because UCF still has to win these two games.

After 320 yards and 4 TD I think K. Smith may get some more attention. Check out his UCF site here: www.kevinsmith24k.com
And don’t forget about the original site: KevinSmithForHeisman.com

On to the pre-game analysis…

What can we expect from SMU?
Well, if you were to look solely at the Mustangs record this season you could say “Hey! Don’t expect a whole lot from those jokers”, and you would be partly right. Injuries have plagued SMU from the start. To add insult to those injuries, SMU’s AD (who ironically is Steve Orsini, former AD for UCF) handed head coach Phil Bennett his pink slip 2 weeks ago but has allowed him to finish out the season. With only one win on the books, it is hard to get excited about anything in Dallas. Despite being almost as horrible as the Miami Dolphins and as bad as Notre Dame, SMU is a tricky team that likes the option and can make plays that can confuse the defense. Also, everyone should know that SMU has lost four of those games in the last seconds of the 4 th or in OT.

What can we expect from UCF?
I expect the team to play the rest of the season with the dial set somewhere between the “Melee” and “Destroy” setting on the football machine. We all saw the defense last week and I am pretty sure that was the result of looking ahead knowing the ECU just lost. However, things came together in the second half and UCF soundly put the Blazers away. Expect UCF to play hard. Expect them to have the excitement of claming first place out of their system. Expect everything to look nice and tight again.

Who, What, Where, Why, When, How?
The Mustangs are lead by QB Justin Willis. Willis isn’t to bad if you can look past his 14 INT’s and 12 fumbles! That is 20 TOTAL TURNOVERS for a single player, eww. Somehow, even with those snafu’s, Willis has 21 passing TD’s on the season, and is still passing for about 246 yards and rushing about 60 yards per game. Sophomore WR Emmanuel Sanders is the choice receiver for the Mustangs as he leads the team with 59 receptions for 760 yards and 6 TD’s. He is followed closely by fellow WR Zack Sledge (Sr.) with 41 receptions for 618 yards and 9 TD’s. As for the running game expect to see Junior RB DeMyron Martin to take over for injured James Mapps (So.) to lead the way. In addition to Martin, expect to see QB Justin Willis bust a few on the ground for this heavy option offensive attack. The offensive line for SMU does its job but could be better in protection and should have been more productive in recovering some of the 25 different turnovers on the season. What will UCF need on defense? Show up and play better than they did against UAB. UAB is a terrible team, but our defense made them look pretty good last week. If last weeks defense shows up in Dallas, then expect the same results. SMU runs the option pretty heavy, so the entire D-Line needs to keep the RB and QB contained. If need be, the UCF linebackers need to assist by attacking ends and working inward. The UCF backfield should have little trouble in defending the SMU WR’s, in fact I think it would be safe to say there will be at least 3 picks this game. Additionally, the UCF defense needs to be aware of possible turnover situations as SMU has been known to give up quite a few. If the UCF D shows up to play, this offense will be shut down in no time. However, if they do not show up, expect SMU to score points.

Defense for SMU is a whole other ballgame. Having an offense that turns the ball over frequently and is unable to convert on 3 rd down is one thing, but having no defense is another. Since the start of the season head coach Phil Bennett knew he faced some challenges in regards to depth and experience on defense. It hasn’t gotten any easier, just look at this list of missing players:

DT Charlie Berry (Sr.)– Out for season
SS Bryce Hudman (So.)– Out for UCF
LB Damon Hurst (Sr.)– Out for UCF
DT Serge Elizee (Jr.) – Indefinitely Suspended
DT Ryan Leonard (Fr.)– Academically Ineligible

Unfortunately this list is longer than those names up there, but you get the point – this team is shallow on D. SMU’s leading tackler is Senior LB Wilton McCray. This season McCray has 39 solos and 24 assists for a total of 63 tackles. Of those tackles, 1.5 are TFL’s for 9 yards and 2 sacks for an additional 11 yards. DB Brandon Jones (Sr.) is also doing his job well as he has tallied up 39 solos. Look for SMU to also attack with some of the backfield with LB Will Bonilla (Sr.), DB Bryan McCann (So.). So what will UCF need to do to score points? Well, Kevin Smith may have another 300 yard game as the SMU D will have more than a hard time trying to stop him. Israel needs to come out with his head on his shoulder and lead the team effectively. Expect to see more balance in the run and pass in preparation for the final home game and the post season. If the passing game gets going, then expect to see impressive gains and continuous momentum on the UCF offense. The O line will need to slow down the blitz that SMU will send from the DB’s. If UCF can keep the turnovers down, and keep the chains moving, then expect this game to be a walk in the park.

Other Contributing Factors: There are many contributing factors that will affect UCF. Away Game – The Knights are on the road for the last time this season and will face another opponent on senior day. Ford Stadium can hold about 32,000 fans, but in all honesty I doubt there will be that many there. Looking for an upset – SMU is 1-9 and would love to end their home football season by bullying C-USA East Number 1 UCF into a loss. Conference USA Game – UCF is number one, but can lose that status with one loss in these next two games Weather looks perfect for a game: – Forecast calls for a daytime high of 72 with a 10% chance of showers. Winds expected to be out of the S at 9-10 MPH with a humidity of 73%. Sunset is at 5:25 PM CT.

Summary:
Honestly, I am glad that UCF decided to not show up for the UAB game instead of the SMU or UTEP games. SMU, despite their dreadful W/L record and turnovers ratio, can be a tricky team that can make even the best sweat. Despite being a lame duck, SMU head coach Phil Bennett is still coaching as if every game mattered. Do not expect SMU to let up because they are resilient and competitive. However, I believe that even if SMU brings their best game Saturday, UCF will still be too powerful to stop at this point. Smith will have another explosive game and I expect Israel to be pumped and lead the team from start to finish. At the end of the day, UCF will leave Dallas, Texas at 8-3 (6-1 in conference play) and that much closer to the C-USA championship and the bowl season.

Last but not least, I leave you with the Keys to the Game and Players to Watch.

Go Knights!